BNP Paribas Artegy's Industrial Vehicle Observatory (OVI) has published its forecasts for 2026 on heavy goods vehicles, commercial vehicles, and public works vehicles. In 2025, the European market for industrial vehicles weighing 3.5 tons and over declined by 10.3%, with a marked downturn in Germany (-17.9%) and Spain (-13%). In France, the market for new industrial vehicles (>5 tons) fell by 9.9%, with a decline of 9.5% for trucks, 10.3% for tractors, and 6.6% for light commercial vehicles, reflecting an uncertain economic environment and the post-COVID slowdown.
A reversal of this trend is expected in 2026: registrations could increase by between 0% and 5%, thanks to fleet renewal and a sharp rise in order books (+24.2% for tractors, +5.3% for trucks, +8.6% for light commercial vehicles).
Theelectric vehicle market is expected to experience significant growth. All European manufacturers now offer vehicles for all uses, with ranges of up to 600 km. The total cost of ownership is approaching that of diesel thanks to subsidies and smart charging, while the diesel fleet is aging (12 years on average), reinforcing the appeal of electric vehicles. The fleet of electric heavy goods vehicles has already doubled in 2025, reaching nearly 2,000 units.
"While 2025 saw a decline in registrations, we anticipate a stable year in 2026, or even 5% growth, driven by fleet renewal and the emergence of a rapidly growing electric vehicle market," says Arnaud Villéger, Director of the OVI.
"In 2025, economic uncertainty and the energy transition made decision-making more complex for our clients. In 2026, they expect concrete support in implementing their renewal and energy transition choices. We will continue to take on the risks they wish to outsource," emphasizes Yaël Bennathan, CEO of BNP Paribas Artegy.
