According to estimates by the Observatoire du Véhicule Industriel, the French market could see a slowdown in truck registrations in 2024, after a return to normal in 2023.
In a tense environment, 2023 was a year of "return to normal", according to BNP Paribas Artegy's Industrial Vehicle Observatory. It was also a year of contrasts, with both positive and negative indicators. On the positive side, delivery times fell sharply, enabling manufacturers to deliver vehicles more quickly. In November 2023, over 12 months, 48733 vehicles were registered in France, up 10.7% on 2022. Over the year, the first 8 months were particularly active, before a slowdown in deliveries in September and October. This halt in registrations is linked to a "purge" of order books, but also to anticipated technological developments (tachographs). On the negative side, order books for new tractors and rigids fell by 20% and 9% respectively in 2023.
Body shop
Results for rigids varied according to activity and body type. Tippers and construction vehicles are suffering from the difficulties of the construction sector: with 6,485 registrations, the segment is down 4.9% and is now below the registration levels of 2017 to 2022. Flatbeds, after a down year in 2022, rose by 4.9% to 2,267 registrations. Vans are up sharply, +37% on 2022, to 2923 units.
"Economic uncertainties are prompting operators to remain cautious by maintaining a fleet at isoperimeter, resulting in a significant drop in order books. Although inflation is expected to ease and interest rates may stabilize, our realistic but cautious forecasts for 2024 predict a probable contraction in registrations", says Arnaud Villéger, Director of the Observatoire du Véhicule industriel. Investments are almost exclusively aimed at fleet renewal, with only 10.2% earmarked for fleet extension.
OVI therefore estimates that vehicle registrations in 2024 will range from a 5.3% fall to 45,700 units (low range) to a 2.1% rise to 49,300 units (high range).
"2024 promises to be another year of transition, towards the challenge of cleaner but more expensive transport," says Arnaud Villéger, Director of the Observatoire du Véhicule industriel. "Over and above the gross figure for new vehicles launched in 2024, it's above all the increase in alternative energies to diesel in the order mix to which we need to pay close attention. This indicator reveals the willingness - or ability - of companies to commit to lowering their CO2 emissions, by taking full advantage of public policies to support "green" energies, and the suitability of equipment to meet operators' operational needs".
